Sir John Curtice: The man who gets elections right

Voters all the scheme in which thru the UK jog to the polls in local and Northern Ireland Assembly elections this Thursday. The man who calls the implications, and informs the nation about the assert of politics per vote casting, shows how he does it.

When Professor Sir John Curtice announces on elections, politicians and pundits pay attention.

Knighted in 2017, he is perhaps potentially the most handy psephologist within the UK who’s mechanically, albeit reluctantly, recognised within the avenue.

“I dwell with it,” he says. “I don’t dwell for it.”

As 10pm chimes on the closing Thursday of a general election, the final voters scheme casting their vote.

It be then that Sir John, who’s been working on general elections for the reason that 1970s, interprets the exit poll – thru which voters at about 140 selected polling stations win in 2d ballots, indicating which candidate they’ve chosen.

And that is the reason what he uses to narrate the realm who’s more doubtless to vary into the following prime minister.

“I don’t scare about what occurs at the discontinuance of vote casting,” he says. “The more worried duration is afterward within the evening, after we really survey how appropriate we’ve been.”

For local elections like this week’s in England, Scotland and Wales there are no exit polls – the identical applies for the Northern Ireland Assembly elections on the identical day.

However Sir John still has to compose a call on what the vote technique for the following general election.

“Any individual needs you to provide a pretty life like estimate of how the parties would scheme if vote casting shares were utilized all the scheme in which thru the nation as a total, and all the scheme in which thru the four worldwide locations,” he says.

“We’re still seeking to construct up the of us an thought of the attach the fable’s going. It be quite exhausting.”

The work of Sir John, professor of political science at the College of Strathclyde, and his colleagues begins months earlier than the glamour of election evening.

By the time polls open on the day of a general election, hundreds of hours of labor finessing systems enjoy long gone in, ready for Sir John and his team of 5 – 6 experts to analyse exit poll outcomes as they are phoned in.

“We are inclined to begin within the center of the morning, 11am or 12ish,” he says. “No earlier, really, because we’ve to work till as soon as quickly effectively into the following day.”

The team hand in their mobile telephones and sit collectively in a guarded room in a secret region.

By early afternoon – several hours earlier than the relaxation of the nation – Sir John has a pleasurable recommendation of who’s more doubtless to be the following prime minister.

After the phenomenal early-evening surge in vote casting and exit polls, he and his experts sketch out their broader thoughts on a whiteboard.

“We’re initiating to transient the of us that if truth be told must know, similar to major representatives from TV corporations,” says Sir John.

“Then we accumulate to the hard dwell of the enterprise, announcing here is what [result] we’re going to head for now.”

After the exit poll-primarily primarily based mostly prediction is published at 10pm there is the wait to survey if it’s pleasurable – or as pleasurable as it would possibly perchance well perhaps perchance moreover moreover be.

Sir John’s team go the sealed room, spending the relaxation of the evening within the TV studio.

This week’s elections, lacking exit polls, will no longer enjoy the amount of prior records that a general election gives.

“The fable is rising within the midst of the evening,” 68-Twelve months-ancient Sir John says. “For final Twelve months’s local elections I received four hours’ sleep [when there was a lull in results] and I received up at 5am to begin all all over again, nonetheless that would no longer occur for general elections.”

For these, he is conscious for no longer decrease than 36 hours straight as he goes thru the implications, whereas writing online stories and exhibiting on radio and TV.

His team bewitch meals from takeaway menus. “We are trying to enjoy something wholesome,” says Sir John, “nonetheless we had pizzas final Twelve months, I mediate.”

“It gets more tough to scheme the job the longer you’re conscious,” says Sir John. “Lack of sleep destroys your brief-duration of time memory, so or no longer it would be vital to construct up as phenomenal willing as that you just would possibly perchance perchance.

“Most of us are no longer sitting up all evening watching this stuff. However we still should always still be ready to notify to of us within the morning what’s took residing.”

However Sir John resists the temptation to recall 40 winks.

“The vogue I survey it’s that, if you occur to’ve got uncared for an evening of sleep, you’ve got uncared for an evening. You don’t must jog back to sleep early and terminate sleep patterns. You enjoy to assist going till nine or 10 the following evening.”

By mid-morning on Friday, general election outcomes indicate whether Sir John became pleasurable or incorrect.

Broadcasters continue for several more hours to ask him for in-depth prognosis on why of us voted as they did.

And for local elections, he is believed as on within the midst of the day to provide his increasing assert of-the-political-nation thoughts.

After that, or no longer it’s time – lastly – for mattress.

BBC One’s protection of the local and Northern Ireland Assembly election evening outcomes, featuring Sir John, begins at 23: 40 BST this Thursday. BBC 5 dwell and the BBC News web page will moreover enjoy potentially the latest.