On August 20, the Congress president Sonia Gandhi held a virtual meeting with the leaders of 18 thoroughly different political events in opposition to the BJP, which is in energy at the Centre. This used to be the third such meeting convened by the Congress’s high management. At some stage in Parliament’s monsoon session, Rahul Gandhi had met with opposition leaders twice, hosting a breakfast for them on one occasion. These tendencies are being considered as the first concerted strikes by the Congress to present an alliance of anti-BJP events since Top Minister Narendra Modi first came to energy in 2014.
On August 20, the Congress president Sonia Gandhi held a virtual meeting with the leaders of 18 thoroughly different political events in opposition to the BJP, which is in energy at the Centre. This used to be the third such meeting convened by the Congress’s high management. At some stage in Parliament’s monsoon session, Rahul Gandhi had met with opposition leaders twice, hosting a breakfast for them on one occasion. These tendencies are being considered as the first concerted strikes by the Congress to present an alliance of anti-BJP events since Top Minister Narendra Modi first came to energy in 2014.
While the next Lok Sabha election is three years away, this early alliance-constructing looks to own been precipitated by the realisation that opposition events must formulate a cohesive and consistent fable against the BJP to amass reliable thing about the overall public despair because of the the inability of lives and financial devastation brought on by the Covid-19 pandemic. There own been thoroughly different catalysts too. Buoyed by a comprehensive victory over the BJP within the West Bengal assembly election, chief minister and TMC (Trinamool Congress) chief Mamata Banerjee furthermore visited the nationwide capital to meet opposition leaders, in conjunction with these from the Congress, atmosphere herself up as a doable lynchpin for an anti-BJP alliance. Before that, the NCP (Nationalist Congress Social gathering) strongman Sharad Pawar had held parleys with opposition leaders too. These tendencies own prompted the Congress to stake its disclose to the management quandary within the opposition condominium.
The management disclose, then again, looks to be the least of the worries amongst non-Congress opposition events. Most leaders concur that the electoral success of any opposition alliance will rely on pragmatic seat-sharing, guided by the organisational energy of a spacious different of events in thoroughly different states. “There used to be no must even discuss the management. There would possibly perchance be a consensus that we can apply the model of cooperative federalism. Whichever party is solid in a explicit put will own the lead in that zone. So, if the RJD (Rashtriya Janata Dal) has to manufacture smartly in Bihar, the Congress must furthermore ship in states the put it is in hiss contest against the BJP. There would possibly perchance be now not all the time a friction,” says Professor Manoj Kumar Jha, RJD Rajya Sabha MP.
While this looks a workable procedure on paper, it is the performance of the Congress that can finally resolve the alliance’s success. It stays the supreme party with a pan-India presence, making it by default the pivot of the alliance. Yet, electorally talking, it for the time being looks the weakest amongst all opposition events. In 108 Lok Sabha seats all over 11 states (look for graphic, Head to Head), the Congress and the BJP are locked in practically hiss contests. In 2019, the Congress received handiest five of these 108 seats, drawing a blank in seven states.
The success of any Opposition alliance will relaxation on the performance of the Congress within the polls in about 300 Lok Sabha constituencies
There are one other 205 seats all over 10 states the put the Congress is either the dominant party or a key participant (look for graphic). In 2019, the Congress received 41 of these, with 31 seats coming from handiest three states—Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Punjab. Its performance within the lately-concluded assembly polls in five states doesn’t smooth any significant commerce in its fortunes either. In Tamil Nadu, it used to be a junior party within the DMK-led coalition. In Assam, the put it received three seats in 2019, it used to be a much away 2d to the BJP. More worryingly, it even failed to effectively mission the ruling Left in Kerala, the put it received 15 seats in 2019, its easiest tally from a single assert. The infighting in Punjab, the put it received eight seats, doesn’t augur smartly for the party either.
It’s, attributable to this truth, now not ghastly that election strategist Prashant Kishor, who helped Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal and M.K. Stalin in Tamil Nadu emerge victorious within the assembly polls earlier this yr, has known round 300 Lok Sabha seats the put the Congress must start planning from now for a a hit present in 2024. He has already approached the Congress expressing his wish to imprint up for the party and has even submitted an define procedure to revive the party’s fortunes. Even whereas he had been liaising with Mamata, Pawar and thoroughly different opposition leaders, Kishor made it certain that an opposition alliance would possibly perchance also now not prevail with out the Congress.
Alternatively, the large stale party must space its condominium in disclose if it is to ship outcomes. The immediate task is to entire the ambiguity over its management. Ever since Rahul resigned, taking accountability for the 2019 Lok Sabha defeat, Sonia Gandhi has been acting intervening time president. Nonetheless that has now not stopped Rahul from calling the pictures. The emergence of Priyanka Gandhi as a Third energy centre has handiest added to the confusion. Looking for an extinguish to this plan, 23 Congress leaders, now identified as the G23, had written to Sonia Gandhi in August final yr, stressful an organisational overhaul, in conjunction with elections for the put up of president. Though an election used to be promised, it has been time and again postponed thanks to the pandemic. The party is seemingly to take this election by the extinguish of this yr, though it stays unclear whether any person from the Gandhi family will contest the ballot. Going by his packed with life involvement in decision-making—in particular within the appointment of assert Congress chiefs and in leading the party in Parliament—it is practically certain that Rahul’s professional return to the helm is drawing shut.
Meanwhile, a subtle mission has been thrown at his management by some participants of the G23. While celebrating his 74th birthday on August 8, Congress Rajya Sabha member Kapil Sibal hosted a dinner for practically all high opposition leaders, except the Congress management. In attendance were NCP chief Sharad Pawar, RJD chief Lalu Prasad, SP (Samajwadi Social gathering) chief Akhilesh Yadav and the Trinamool’s Derek O’Brien. Some G23 participants—in conjunction with Shashi Tharoor, Manish Tewari and Anand Sharma—were furthermore disclose, as were representatives from Punjab’s SAD (Shiromani Akali Dal) and Odisha’s BJD (Biju Janata Dal).
Sources snarl the revamp of the Congress used to be seemingly the most important aspects of debate. There used to be a consensus that the Congress had to steer from the front, however that it needed to abet its inner structure first. Some leaders overtly talked about that the rejuvenation of the Congress would possibly perchance also happen handiest if the party used to be “freed from the clutches of the Gandhis”.
High Congress leaders, then again, seem unperturbed by these narratives. “I’m now not going to reveal on a particular person’s selection of customer checklist for his birthday party,” says Randeep Singh Surjewala, the Congress frequent secretary and in-fee of the party’s verbal substitute division. “The Gandhis depict the different fable against an arrogant govt which has launched a relentless assault on lives and livelihoods and compromised India’s nationwide security and territorial integrity. Opposition events agree that the centre point for our coalition is to put the nation’s core significant values by removing the Modi govt. To tag that, they must work with the Congress.”
That some opposition leaders stay wary of doing industrial with the Gandhis used to be furthermore indicated by the presence of broken-down Uttar Pradesh chief minister Akhilesh Yadav at the Sibal dinner. He has shunned being portion of any Congress-led meeting of opposition events, even excusing himself from the August 20 meeting convened by Sonia Gandhi. Other significant leaders who own shunned such meetings consist of BSP (Bahujan Samaj Social gathering) chief Mayawati and Delhi chief minister and AAP (Aam Aadmi Social gathering) supremo Arvind Kejriwal.
There has furthermore been some difference amongst opposition events over their frequent fable. To illustrate, at the meeting on August 20, several leaders expressed reservations over making the Pegasus snooping scandal a significant talking point, asserting that such a technical disclose is now not going to search out resonance amongst rural voters.
Alternatively, these handicaps own failed to dampen the spirit within the opposition camps. “Within the Olympic hockey fits, we seen how the fortunes of groups changed in every quarter,” says the TMC’s Derek O’Brien. “It has been handiest three months for the explanation that BJP used to be annihilated in West Bengal, Kerala and Tamil Nadu. Let’s wait for the thoroughly different quarters. The match is now not over but.” n
